With the rapid development of the national economy, and the blasting engineering is constantly increasing, and the geotechnical blasting technology is applied widely in the mine, highway, railroad, and the electric power construction, and the site preparation and pit excavation cutting excavation in the projects mentioned above need the blasting operation. And the initiation technique of delaying time is used in general rock blasting, pre-splitting blasting and smooth blasting according to the different requirements of the engineering[1]. Especially for the deep-hole blasting under the complex environment, the neighboring people, buildings, all kinds of devices and equipments should be prevented from attaint, therefore it sets higher demands for the safety and technology of the blasting. In recent years, two kinds of blasting methods are used in the mining, civil construction, which are crater blasting and bench blasting[2]. The effectiveness of the two blasting methods has close contact with the knowledge of the crater blasting and bench blasting. The crater blasting is different from the bench blasting because the crater blasting has the free vertical surface relative to the borehole, while there are more than two free surfaces in the bench blasting, and one is parallel to the borehole, and the other is perpendicular to the borehole. And the course of the rock fragmentation around borehole needs a big explosive force, and then a lot of explosion accidents occur frequently in mining enterprise, which cause the a large number of injuries and pecuniary loss[3]. The reasons causing the accidents can be divided into two respects, which are human factor and objective factor. The human factors include the mistakes and disadvantages existing in the blasting technology and construction technology, the shortcoming of on-site experience of engineering and technical personnel, the loose check of the relating managing personnel and the approval in excess of authority and so on. And the objective factors include thunder and light, the quality of the blasting materials and so on[4].

随着国民经济的快速发展,爆破工程不断增加,岩土爆破技术被广泛运用于矿山、公路、铁路和电力建设中,在上述工程中预备场地、开挖基坑和路堑需要进行爆破作业。一般岩石爆破、欲裂爆破和平稳爆破应根据工程的不同要求使用时间拖延技术[1]。特别在复杂环境中进行深孔爆破时,应避免对周围人群、建筑以及所有装置和设备造成破坏,由此对爆破提出了更高的安全和技术要求。近年来,在采矿和土建施工中主要使用两种爆破方法,即:漏斗爆破和阶梯式爆破[2]。两种爆破方法的有效实施与漏斗爆破和阶梯式爆破知识的充分认识息息相关。漏斗爆破与阶梯式爆破的区别在于,漏斗爆破只装有一个自由面,且与钻孔垂直对立;而在阶梯式爆破中装有两个以上的自由面,其中一个平行于钻孔,另一个垂直于钻孔。在钻孔周围进行岩石破碎时需要巨大的爆破力,此时会经常发生爆破事故,从而造成大量的人身损害和经济损失[3]。事故原因主要有二,可分为人为因素和客观因素。人为因素包括:爆破技术和施工技术中存在的错误操作和不利条件;工程技术人员现场经验不足;管理人员疏于检查;越权审批;等等。客观因素包括:雷电影响、爆破材料劣质等。

The risk analysis of the blasting in mining is important for the predicting and controlling blasting accidents. And the risk analysis of the blasting in mining uses the quantity index as the basic data, and the score of all kinds of factors which can cause the blasting accidents in mining is added up, and then the risk ranking is carried out based on the relative risk index directly, and every factor has the same weight, therefore this method can not embody the different affecting degree of every kind of factors. It is necessary to amend the original risk evaluating method, and the proper affecting proportions of every factor on the blasting accidents, and the actual risk of the blasting in mining will be reflected[5].

分析采矿中存在的爆破风险对于爆破事故的预测和控制至关重要。采矿爆破风险分析将数量指标作为基本数据,再辅以产生爆破事故的各种因素得分,由此根据相对风险因素直接得出不同的风险等级。因为每种因素均等量齐观,所以这种方法不能体现每种因素的不同影响程度。有必要对原有的风险评估方法加以改善,合理分配每种因素对于爆破事故的影响比例,最终反映采矿爆破中存在的实际风险[5]。

In order to understand the effect of all risk factors on the risk probability correctly, and the grey theory is applied in the risk evaluation of the blasting in mining, and the grey theory breaks through the constraint that the tradition precious mathematics does not permit the ambiguous answer, and the association degree between the all kinds of risk factors and the accidental consequences based on the grey theory, and the risk ranking of the a[6]ccident factors causing the blasting in mining is carried out according to the numeric value of the association degree, and the weight of every accident factor in the all factors in the blasting accidents in mining can be obtained. And the risk of the blasting in mining can be embodied really according to the value of the blasting risk.

为正确理解各种风险因素的作用,在采矿爆破风险评估中可使用灰色理论。灰色理论突破了传统数学不允许出现模棱两可答案的限制,根据灰色理论提出了风险因素和事故结果之间的关联度,并根据关联度数值得出造成采矿爆破事故因素的风险等级[6],从而获得每种事故因素在采矿爆破的所有因素中所占的比重。由此根据爆破风险数值体现采矿爆破风险。

The grey system theory is proposed at first by Deng, which concerning on model with uncertainty and inadequate information in studying and understanding systems based on study on conditional analysis, predicting and deciding making. The grey system defines every uncertainty variable as a grey quantity that varies within a given span. It does not depend on statistical technology cope with the grey quantity. It copes directly with the initial information, and looks for the intrinsic regularity of information. The grey predicting mathematical model applies the important part of the grey system theory. From this perspective, grey predicting can be said to confirm the evaluation completed by the application of a grey system, which is in between a white system and a black-box system[7].

灰色体系理论最先由邓教授提出,针对不确定及信息不充分模型根据条件分析对系统进行研究和理解,作出预测和决定。根据灰色系统定义,每个不确定变量作为一个灰色数量在给定区间内发生变化。灰色数量的计算不依赖于统计技术,它直接处理初始信息,并寻找信息的内在规律。灰色预测数学模型为灰色系统理论的重要组成部分。灰色预测可用来确认灰色系统(白色系统和黑色系统之间的系统)得出的评估结果[7]。

In recent years the study on the risk evaluation based on grey theory has caused wide concern by some scientists, and very significant achievements have been acquired. A risk assessment of construction projects is put forward, and ranking of objects and determination of their optimality are determined based on TOPSIS grey and COPRAS-G method with attributes values determined at intervals. And the proposed model is offered and the main results of the research are analyzed [8]. A proposed version of a network thinking methodology is established for identification and estimation of factors which can affect the logistic process safety in a network context based on its modified stages, and a significant element is presented based on grey systems theory’s method named Grey Relational Analysis quantitatively formulating a common experts’ suggestion relating with an impact mutual force of identified factors [9]. A research of risk perceptions and understanding in OHS by workers was conducted in three sectors, such as construction, refractory, and steel industries. And Grey relational method is applied in assessing safety culture and work practices, and it is demonstrated that this method can be applied in benchmarking of organizations on these two aspects [10]. Industrial jobs are divided into two categories i.e., low risk and high risk based on grey relational analysis method. The results on a dataset are provided, together with the comparisons in terms of classification accuracy between the proposed approach and other methods that used the same dataset. The proposed approach outperforms other alternative methods and yields at least 10% improvement in classification accuracy compared to the best results achieved among the earlier studies [11].An FMEA based on the fuzzy evidential reasoning (FER) approach and grey theory is put forward to solve the two problems and improve the effectiveness of the traditional FMEA, numerical example show that the proposed FMEA can well capture FMEA team members’ diversity opinions and prioritize failure modes under different types of uncertainties [12]. A risk assessment method which combines wavelet neural network (WNN) and entropy-grey correlation is presented, and the simulation analysis is carried out by MATLAB, and results show that this method can be easily applied on the security risk assessment of the e-government information system to produce objective results [13]. A GRAP method which concludes grey relational projection (GRP), grey prediction, and grey decision making is proposed to carry out risk assessment of ad hoc network. Compared with principal component analysis, GRAP has demonstrated better performance and more flexible characteristics. And results show that model is more effective and efficient for risk assessment than principal component analysis in ad hoc networks [14]. The above achievements can show that the risk analysis based on grey theory has been studied by some scientists in many fields, but the application of the grey theory on the risk evaluation of the blasting in mining has not been reported in public, therefore it is truly a significant to study the blasting risk in mining based on grey theory.

近年来,基于灰色理论的风险评估研究引起了众多科学家的广泛关注,并获得了显著成就。一些科学家提出,在对施工项目进行风险评估时,可根据TOPSIS灰色和COPRAS-G方法及区间属性数值确定对象等级及其优劣差异。并针对上述提议制造灰色模型,对主要研究结果进行分析[8]。建议建立一种网络思维方法,就改良后网络环境中的物流过程进行分析,对影响安全性的因素进行识别和评估;根据专家对于确定因素相互影响力的普遍建议,根据“灰色关联分析(GRAP)”的灰色系统理论方法得出数量公式[9]。风险认知与工人职业健康安全认知的研究可在以下三个部门进行:建筑、耐火材料和钢铁行业。在评估组织的安全文化和工作实践时可运用灰色关联法。经证明,该方法可有效用于组织安全文化和工作实践的标杆管理[10]。根据关联分析法可将工业作业分为两类:低风险作业和高风险作业。使用同一数据集结果,将使用关联分析法的分类精确度与其他方法进行比较。通过对比两种方法早期研究的最佳结果可以发现,关联分析法要优先于其他方法,其分类精确度比起其他方法至少高出10%[11]。基于模糊证据推理(FER)方法和灰色理论提出的失效模式与影响分析方法(FMEA),可解决上述两种问题,并提高传统FMEA方法的有效性。许多数例表明,该FMEA方法可很好地获取FMEA团队成员的多样意见,并将处于不同类别不确定条件下的失效模式进行优劣排分[12]。此外,本文结合小波神经网络 (WNN)和熵灰色关联提出了风险评估法,并在MATLAB进行了模拟分析。结果表明,该方法可轻松用于电子政务信息系统,进行安全风险评估,并产生客观结果[13]。灰色关联分析法包括:灰色关联投影(GRP)、灰色预测和灰色决策,其可用于自组网的风险评估。与主成分分析相比,GRAP性能更佳,特点灵活,模型更有效[14]。尽管科学家已在众多领域就灰色理论的风险分析进行研究,但灰色理论在采矿爆破风险评估中的运用却少有公开报道,因此,从灰色理论角度研究采矿爆破具有重要意义。